Central Bank Communication

FOMC Minutes: As a Source of Monetary Policy Surprise

This paper examines whether and to what extent publications of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes contain significant information for the expectation of future monetary policy in the US. We construct measure of the surprise new surprise …

The Fed and the Rest: International Spillover Effects of U.S Monetary Policy Announcements

This research investigates, at first, whether the monetary policy (conventional or unconventional) shocks in the United States have significant effects on the financial asset price (equity prices, bond yields, and exchange rates) in the rest of the world, then evaluate to what extent the response of foreign asset prices to US monetary surprises vary across advanced and non-advanced countries and how these reactions changed in conventional (1996-2008) and unconventional monetary policy times (2008 - 2017). Overall, we find that the international spill overs from US monetary policy shocks are substantial; moreover, it shows that in many countries the effects of spill overs on the markets are higher than the domestic impact in the US itself.

Unconventional Times and Unconventional Reactions: The Effects of U.S Monetary Policy Announcements on Financial Markets

By using the event study technique with the two proxies for monetary policy surprises which are the target surprise and the path surprise it was documented that Federal reserve communication announcements affect financial markets significantly moreover, it was shown that different financial assets react to different factors of monetary policy surprises. For example, the exchange rates and ten-year interest rates respond mainly to the path surprise while stock prices and short-term interest rates respond mainly to the target surprise. Furthermore, to discuss whether the response of financial asset prices to monetary policy surprises varies in different times in terms of monetary policy implications in the US, this study compared the estimates of the pass-through of monetary policy shocks on financial assets before and after QE and further, considered the asset price reactions in recession and non-recession times with high-frequency data. It was shown that the effects of these monetary policy surprises have a different pattern in different times. All the financial markets' responses (except equity index) to the target surprise were insignificant after QE whereas all exchange rates' reactions to the path factor after QE are significant and also the magnitude of these responses have increased. Therefore, these findings supported two arguments which suggest the effects of US dollar on international exchange rates has become more influential after the Fed's unconventional monetary policy and to adequately capture the effects of monetary policy on financial markets, at least two factors are needed.